Many learned scholars of NBA basketball have said you can’t judge a draft until at least five years down the line. But as I am not a learned scholar — I am, in fact, Just Some Guy — I say, with all due respect:

“Go outside, nerd. Get out. Go. I ain’t got time to be distracted by your worthless chime-ins. Go on.”

What follows is a stab at a first draft of history — a thumbnail sketch of who had a pretty good first night of the 2025 NBA Draft and who might wind up looking back at the evening wistfully, with some regret, perhaps while looking out contemplatively at a body of water.

There will be more winners than losers, because for one thing, hope should spring eternal on draft night, and for another, I am a big ol’ kindhearted softy. (Also because, if we’re being honest, I can only feel so comfortable speaking with authority about a group of young people I have yet to see play NBA basketball.)

We begin where the stars at night are big and bright (clap-clap-clap-clap):

WINNER: Dallas Mavericks

Let’s venture out together on a fairly sturdy limb: I think it was a pretty good call to draft Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft.

Flagg is the kind of über-prospect franchises dream of landing: a 6-foot-8, 221-pound forward who was the best player in college basketball at just 18 years of age; a bona fide two-way player whose measurables, motor and play style have drawn comparisons to the likes of Scottie Pippen, Grant Hill, Andrei Kirilenko, Kawhi Leonard and Jayson Tatum; and a well-rounded Swiss Army knife whose statistical profile projects him as one of the highest-impact draft entrants of the last two decades. He seems almost purely additive, in ways that teenagers — hell, that veterans — rarely are; capable of getting in where he fits in and elevating the talent around him, of scaling up his individual production when called upon, and of eventually growing into the kind of all-around offensive hub you can build a title contender around.

Adding Flagg is enough to earn Dallas our first W of the evening. What makes the Mavericks an even bigger winner of draft week, though, is the pair of moves they made with incumbent members of their roster.

First, Dallas extended center Daniel Gafford for an eminently reasonable three years and $54.3 million — the most the team could give him while still being eligible to trade him between now and February’s trade deadline if the right opportunity presents itself. Then, Nico Harrison and Co. got star point guard Kyrie Irving to decline his $43 million player option for next season in favor of a new three-year deal that guarantees him $119 million, but will start at a lower, sub-max salary. That got the Mavs under the second apron and created enough financial flexibility for them to be able to use the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception, which they can now earmark to go shopping for a stopgap primary playmaker while Irving continues rehabbing his surgically repaired left ACL. (Longtime NBA insider Marc Stein’s hearing it might be D’Angelo Russell.)

You can’t unring a bell like the Luka Dončić trade. But coming out of draft week with a brand new bright young thing, with your frontcourt depth fortified, with increased trade and financial flexibility, and with more avenues to add talent to a team that never really got a chance to see what it could be after Anthony Davis’ arrival … well, it at least gives things a chance to quiet down a bit in Dallas, and for Harrison’s front office to get focused on putting the team back in position to make the right kind of noise.

LOSER (THE BEST-LAID PLANS OF MICE AND MEN DIVISION): Ace Bailey

The Rutgers standout canceled a planned visit with the Philadelphia 76ers, holders of Wednesday’s No. 3 pick. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Shams Charania, Bailey was “the only U.S.-based prospect [who didn’t] visit any clubs” and “declined invitations from multiple teams in his draft range” — an attempt to steer himself to a team willing to furnish him “with ample minutes and usage to maximize his full potential” in pursuit of “a clear path to stardom.”

Bailey was widely reported to believe those minutes, that usage and that path would come from either the Wizards at No. 6, the Pelicans at No. 7 or the Nets at No. 8.

He went fifth to the Jazz — a team that “was not one of his preferred destinations,” and that he had “no idea” was interested in him. One prospective way to gauge a team’s level of interest in you? Meeting with them. Alas!

BUT ALSO … Y’KNOW … WINNER: Ace Bailey

He’s the No. 5 pick in the NBA Draft, which means he’s about to earn $41.2 million, which doesn’t seem much like losing to me.

And if you want to talk about a team that needs a big shot-maker and explosive athlete who can soak up minutes, usage and opportunities to expand his offensive repertoire … well, the Jazz just finished 24th in offensive efficiency, 27th in the share of their shots that come at the rim, 23rd in team 3-point accuracy, 23rd in half-court scoring efficiency and 21st in transition scoring efficiency. Utah’s desperate for some offensive juice, and they like Bailey’s chances of offering it … and Ace himself certainly doesn’t seem to lack confidence that he can provide it in spades.

PUTTING THE W IN “CA-CAW!” Atlanta Hawks

Color me impressed with the vision.

First, Atlanta went shopping at the Celtics’ luxury tax fire sale to come away with Kristaps Porziņġis — a higher-level stretch-5 than Trae Young has ever played with, and an increasingly efficient switch-punisher as he’s aged in the league — for the cost of, really, only Georges Niang (imported from Cleveland at the 2025 trade deadline in the De’Andre Hunter deal), thanks to involving a third team by plopping Terance Mann (a fine wing, but somewhat surplus to requirements, especially with $47 million due over the next three years) into Brooklyn’s yawning chasm of cap space.

On top of that, the Hawks paid Mann’s freight with Wednesday’s No. 22 pick — the worse of the two first-rounders they controlled. That left them with the 13th overall selection … which they were able to flip to New Orleans to move back 10 spots in exchange for an unprotected 2026 first-rounder — whichever is higher between New Orleans (which, lest we forget, was terrible this year) and Milwaukee (which, lest we forget, will be without their second-best player for most if not all of next season) — and still land ace Georgia defensive big man Asa Newell, whom they’d reportedly been considering taking had they just stuck and picked at 13 anyway.

The Hawks, then, come out of the first night of the draft with All-Star-caliber talents in Young, Porziņġis and Jalen Johnson, All-Defensive dynamo Dyson Daniels, rising sophomore Zaccharie Risacher, solid two-way big Onyeka Okongwu and possibly a re-signed Caris LeVert, with Newell joining Mouhamed Gueye and Dominick Barlow in an athletic young frontcourt rotation, while adding a potentially extremely valuable 2026 first-round pick, and still having nearly $29 million of breathing room under the luxury tax line, with multiple traded-player exceptions (headlined by a $25.3 million whopper from offloading Dejounte Murray) and the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to use in searching for more help in the backcourt. That’s … pretty damn good!

Devastating postseason injuries to Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton threw the top half of the Eastern Conference into chaos. The Hawks, led by newly minted lead executive Onsi Saleh, are clearly looking to use that chaos as a ladder. And if Porziņġis can stay mostly healthy — granted, a big if — and the corps of big, long, athletic youngsters continues to develop around Young, Atlanta could climb awfully high, awfully fast.

SO, WHAT’S THE PLAN HERE, EXACTLY? New Orleans Pelicans

OK … so … hmm.

First, the Pelicans sent the Pacers’ top-four-protected 2026 first-round pick — originally sent to Toronto as part of a package for Pascal Siakam, then redirected to New Orleans as part of the Brandon Ingram deal — back to Indiana, so that the Pels could get the No. 23 pick in Wednesday’s draft.

Then, they flip C.J. McCollum, Kelly Olynyk and a future second-round pick to Washington for Jordan Poole (younger and under contract for an additional year beyond McCollum), Saddiq Bey (who missed all of last season rehabbing a torn ACL) and a second-round pick — a deal that created some present-tense flexibility in exchange for taking on more future money, with your evaluation of its efficacy likely depending on how much you like Poole as a primary backcourt scorer with Dejounte Murray still working his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Then, after taking Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears — reportedly hell on wheels with the ball in his hands, with a jumper that still has a ways to go — with the seventh overall pick, the Pels give up either their unprotected 2026 first-rounder or the Bucks’ unprotected 2026 first-rounder, whichever one is better, to move up 10 spots to draft Maryland’s Derik Queen. The book on Queen: He’s a super gifted undersized center with phenomenal hands and playmaking/scoring touch on the interior, but with a suspect jumper and concerns about how he’ll fare defensively at the NBA level. The Pelicans, who finished dead last in the NBA in points allowed per possession last season, would seem to be looking to put him next to Zion Williamson, who has an awfully similar top-line scouting report.

Between the additions of Poole, Fears and Queen, and holdovers like Williamson, Murray (when healthy), Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins and rising sophomore big man Yves Missi, I love the talent the Pelicans have accumulated. I’m just not sure I believe it’s all going to fit together well enough and consistently enough to produce a no-doubt playoff team next season … and that’s if everyone stays healthy, which, if you’ve watched the Pelicans these last few seasons, is a Godzilla-sized “if.” That makes the potential downside risk of giving up an unprotected 2026 first-rounder absolutely massive.

The new front office led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver clearly felt compelled to make their presence felt in their first draft at the helm in New Orleans. Not all feelings are great, though. Like, for example, the pain at giving up a high lottery pick the year after you took over.

WINNER: Jeremiah Fears’ chains

If the game is half as cold as the jewelry, forget everything I just said. New Orleans is going to be fine.

WINNER (BUT NOT, LIKE, IN A BLOWOUT): Charlotte Hornets

After topping .500 just once in the past decade and seeing recent top picks LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams and Brandon Miller all miss significant time due to injury early in their careers, the Hornets need talent all over the roster, but also players capable of fitting into the hard-charging culture that second-year head coach Charles Lee is trying to build. And hey, if they can shoot — Charlotte finished dead last in team effective field-goal percentage last season — well, so much the better.

Enter Kon Knueppel, a 6-foot-5 swingman who shot 40.6% from 3-point range and an ACC-leading 91.4% from the free-throw line at Duke as a freshman. It’s reasonable to wonder whether Knueppel’s ceiling is as high as some of the players picked shortly after him — most notably Bailey, who went immediately after him — but his combination of shot-making, complementary pick-and-roll playmaking and high-level feel for the game seem like a good fit between Charlotte’s other top-of-the-draft perimeter incumbents.

In addition to taking Knueppel, the Hornets also finally consummated a Mark Williams trade — we think; if anyone’s seen any medical report disputes, holler at me — sending the 7-footer to the Suns for a pair of first-round draft picks: No. 29 this year (used on UConn swingman Liam McNeeley) and a top-five-protected 2029 first from either the Jazz, Cavaliers or Timberwolves (whichever lands latest). It’s a haul with less upside than an unprotected 2031 Lakers first, a 2030 L.A. pick swap, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish, I’ll grant, but if Charlotte had decided it wanted to be out of the Mark Williams business after seeing him play just 106 games across three professional seasons, winding up with two more bites at the apple doesn’t seem like a half-bad bet.

LOSER: Anyone Who Thought the Knueppel Children Wouldn’t All Have First Names That Start With K

You poor, stupid fools. Of kourse, they all do.

… I GUESS? Phoenix Suns

I understand the Suns were bottom-10 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, opponent field-goal percentage at the rim and total rebounding rate, and right around league average in blocked shots, points allowed in the paint and on second-chance opportunities, and they spent most of last season trying to make some combination of Jusuf Nurkić, Nick Richards, Mason Plumlee, Bol Bol and various small-ball looks work at center. I understand they needed a center, and all the pre-draft reporting suggested they were planning to come away with one at No. 10, the prize pick they landed from the Houston Rockets in the Kevin Durant deal.

So I understood it when they picked Duke center Khaman Maluach — a massive rim protector and pick-and-roll dive man whose ascent in the four years since he picked up the game has been meteoric. I understood it a little less when they also traded a pair of picks for the inarguably talented but oft-injured Williams, effectively spending three first-round picks on a new center rotation … while already having all of those other centers (besides Nurkić) on the roster. And even less than that when I realized they were now out of tradable first-round picks, which seems like they're going to make further deals to either shed salary or remake a shooting-guard-heavy roster (though they did pick up five second-round selections in the Durant deal).

If Williams stays healthy and Maluach continues his rapid development arc, they could wind up being a fantastic tandem in the middle — think Gafford and Dereck Lively II in Dallas. Combine that with bounce-back seasons from Devin Booker back in full-time Point Book mode and Bradley Beal in a higher-usage offensive role post-KD, and hopefully more consistent playmaking from Jalen Green, and … maybe you’ve got something?

I don’t know — I just keep looking at this …

… and wondering if the change is actually … y’know … good? And very unsure it’s good enough to justify the ongoing wearing of the second apron.

WINNER: Cedric Coward

In four years’ time, this young man went from paying $25,000 to play at Division III Willamette University to the No. 11 pick in the NBA Draft. “Bet on yourself” stories are rarely this damn literal.

The Grizzlies paid up to get Coward, sending Wednesday’s No. 16 pick (later used on Chinese center Yang Hansen), a 2028 Orlando Magic pick that came over in the Desmond Bane deal and a pair of future second-rounders to the Portland Trail Blazers to move up five spots. They did it because they’ve been trying to find the right fit between Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the wing for years, and they think that Coward — 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, a 39% 3-point shooter across three D-I seasons who also has great touch on the interior, athleticism and defensive versatility across perimeter positions, with the tools and opportunity to potentially develop into an on-ball star — just might wind up being it.

It’s a big bet … but then again, so was paying 25 grand to get on a Division III roster, and that one worked out pretty all right.

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