March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out and on NCAA Tournament bubble
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There will soon be a March Madness bracket.

It's something at this part of the college basketball calendar that the avid and casual fan is anxiously awaiting, as they build out their March Madness TV schedule and begin to think about how they will fill out their NCAA Tournament bracket challenges.

But as this time of the year also proves on an annual basis, the bracket looks different than it did March 13, two days before, or even a week before. It's the results of top-seeded teamslike Miami (Ohio) having lost early in their respective conference tournaments, and teams that entered championship week on the bubble sustained a loss that knocked them off.

REQUIRED READING: These 10 teams have most at stake in March Madness bracketology

The last two spots on the bubble have been interchangeable in the 48 hours since the Redhawks lost in the MAC tournament. It created some bad news for teams like Auburn, which was hanging onto a potential trip to the First Four despite their late-season slide. There have also been other teams that are in the "Next Four Out" trying to get in because of this, and the fact that they've been able to get some wins in their respective tournaments themselves.

The known factor for tomorrow's selection show is that it will include 31 teams who earned their respective conferences' automatic bid. The other likely known factor will be that Duke, Arizona and Michigan will see their names on the 1-seed line.

Ten different conference tournaments will crown a champion on Saturday around the country. There will be six teams crowned on Sunday in the lead-up to the bracket reveal on CBS at 6 p.m. ET, or after the Big Ten championship concludes, as it has a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off.

Here's an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and which are likely going dancing as conference tournaments continue and Selection Sunday inches closer:

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March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker

Tracker based on games through Friday, March 13

NCAA Tournament automatic qualifiers

Here's a look at the list of teams that have already secured a bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference's respective automatic qualifier ticket:

  • America East: March 14 at 11 a.m. ET
  • American: March 15 at 3:15 p.m. ET
  • ACC: March 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • ASUN: Queens (N.C.)
  • Atlantic 10: March 15 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Big 12: March 14 at 6 p.m. ET
  • Big East: March 14 at 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Big Sky: Idaho
  • Big South: High Point
  • Big Ten: March 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Big West: March 14 at 10 p.m. ET
  • CAA: Hofstra
  • Conference USA: March 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Horizon League: Wright State
  • Ivy League: March 15 at Noon ET
  • MAAC: Siena
  • MAC: March 14 at 8 p.m. ET
  • MEAC: March 14 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
  • Mountain West: March 14 at 6 p.m. ET
  • Northeast: Long Island
  • Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
  • Patriot League: Lehigh
  • SEC: March 15 at 1 p.m. ET
  • SoCon: Furman
  • Southland: McNeese
  • SWAC: March 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Summit League: North Dakota State
  • Sun Belt: Troy
  • WAC: March 15 at Noon ET
  • West Coast: Gonzaga
NCAA Tournament locks
  • Big Ten (8): Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA and Iowa
  • Big 12 (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU
  • ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami and Clemson
  • SEC (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and Georgia
  • Big East (3): UConn, St. John's and Villanova
  • Other (4): Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's and Santa Clara

Using Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology as a statistical database, the Big Ten leads the way with eight teams as "locks" for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. 35 teams have a "100%" chance of being included in the 68-team bracket per Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology.

It's also time to start talking about the West Coast Conference being a three-bid league after Santa Clara knocked off Saint Mary's in the conference tournament semifinals. Perhaps this is a high sell on the Broncos, but at 25-8 overall and a NET ranking of 40, they should be in the dance.

NCAA Tournament likely ins
  • ACC (1): North Carolina State
  • Big Ten: Ohio State
  • Big 12 (2): TCU and UCF
  • Big East: N/A
  • SEC (1): Texas A&M
  • Other (2): Miami (Ohio) and Utah State

Ohio State is close to being a "lock" for the NCAA Tournament, but remains in the "likely in" category for now. The wins that stand out on the Buckeyes' resume for the selection committee are their wins over Wisconsin (then-No. 24 team in the country, No. 27 in NET ranking) and Purdue (then-No. 8 team in the country, No. 10 in NET ranking).

Miami (Ohio) dropped down to this category following its loss to UMass in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament. The Redhawks metrics suggest that they should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, in addition to the fact that they went undefeated in the regular season, but it will come down to the selection committee. Could we be in for one of the more polarizing Selection Sunday snubs/conversations??

NCAA Tournament bubble teams
  • ACC (1): SMU
  • Big Ten (1): Indiana
  • Big 12 (1): Cincinnati
  • Big East (1): Seton Hall
  • SEC (3): Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn
  • Other (3): San Diego State, VCU and New Mexico

The bubble remains very fluid. Though they are separated by one less win, Oklahoma should top Auburn for one of the "last four in" spots as the Sooners made it one round further than the Tigers in the SEC tournament. Oklahoma has also won six of its last seven, while Auburn has lost four of its last seven, and nine of its last 12 since Jan. 31.

The Atlantic 10 is an intriguing conference for the bubble. Until it loses in Pittsburgh at PPG Paint Arena, Saint Louis is the conference's automatic bid. VCU remains firmly on the bubble after a quarterfinal win over Duquesne and could continue to solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament with a semifinal win over St. Joseph's, but if the Rams — or Billikens — don't win the A10 or make the championship game, the conference could have three teams.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out and on NCAA bubble



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