March Madness upsets don't start when the games begin.

In fact, much of the anger and anxiety for some programs and fans begins several weeks before the tournament's 68-team field is announced. That's the nature of the beast with a 31-game regular season with 364 Division-I men's basketball programs competing for limited spots in the NCAA Tournament.

Perceived snubs are inevitable. Anger over where a team is seeded is expected. If the selection committee uses advanced metrics, fans will scream about the "eye test." However, if the eye test is used, fans will scream about the metrics.

The committee uses a mixture of both to select the full field for the 68-team field. The seven metrics used by the committee are a combination of predictive metrics and results-based.

The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, ESPN's BPI and the Torvik rankings are the predictive rankings that measure a team's strength on its offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusting for opponents and location.

Meanwhile, KPI, ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB) are more results-based rankings, ones that can judge how the difficulty of achieving its record and resume for March.

While some teams have similar metrics abound by the end of the season, others have a wider range of outcomes, depending on how games were won and lost. The selection committee has to weigh those and figure out the best 68-team field.

This inevitably leaves some fans and programs angry about a snub.

Here's a look at the most polarizing teams ahead of Selection Sunday based on the metrics used for the men's NCAA Tournament:

March Madness 2025: NCAA Tournament metrics' most polarizing teams

All rankings as of Saturday, March 14

Miami (Ohio) (31-1)

• NET: 64
• KenPom: 93
• BPI: 93
• Torvik: 87
• KPI: 53
• SOR: 29
• WAB: 38

The RedHawks could ill afford to lose the MAC tournament championship game without debate if they belonged in the NCAA Tournament. Losing in the quarterfinals to a 15-loss UMass team is definitely not going to help Miami (Ohio)'s case.

Despite a perfect 31-0 regular season, being one-and-done in the conference tournament places them right on the bubble, and it's hard to say it's on the right side of it. Their Wins Above Bubble ranking, though, should be enough to get them in as an at-large.

Auburn (17-5)

• NET: 39
• KenPom: 38
• BPI: 28
• Torvik: 41
• KPI: 46
• SOR: 43
• WAB: 44

The dropoff from a Final Four appearance to a bubble team is hard to swallow for Auburn nation. However, the Tigers have a win over Mississippi State, but fell to No. 25 Tennessee in the SEC Tournament.

Southern Methodist (20-13)

• NET: 37
• KenPom: 42
• BPI: 42
• Torvik: 42
• KPI: 41
• SOR: 49
• WAB: 46

The Mustangs looked like a tournament lock on Feb. 21 with a 19-8 record. However, SMU would win one more time in its final six games, dropping them to the bubble and potentially out of the tournament with a loss to Louisville in the NCAA Tournament.

SMU started the season 8-0, but finished 12-13 the rest of the way.

Central Florida (21-10)

• NET: 50
• KenPom: 52
• BPI: 57
• Torvik: 54
• KPI: 28
• SOR: 37
• WAB: 36

The Knights likely needed a couple of wins in the Big 12 Tournament to have a chance to sneak into the picture. However, they could not hang with No. 1 Arizona in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.

UCF, like SMU, opened the season blisteringly hot with a 17-4 record following an impressive win over then-No. 11 Texas Tech on Jan. 31. However, the Knights finished with a 3-6 in their final nine games, which included a pair of three-game losing skids.

Indiana (18-14)

• NET: 41
• KenPom: 45
• BPI: 38
• Torvik: 34
• KPI: 69
• SOR: 50
• WAB: 52

The Hoosiers seemed like a safe bet to make the 68-team field as recently as a month ago, with a 17-8 record, but they lost six of their final seven games, including a pair of losses to a 15-19 Northwestern squad.

Because of that, Indiana's probably on the outside looking in at the end of Darian DeVries' first season as coach. Thankfully it's a football school now.

New Mexico (22-9)

• NET: 46
• KenPom: 49
• BPI: 56
• Torvik: 52
• KPI: 44
• SOR: 64
• WAB: 58

Like Indiana, the Lobos faltered down the stretch, losing four of their final six games after a 21-6 start. The slide was capped off by a 64-62 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament semifinals, denying them a shot at the league's automatic berth.

Barring a surprise, they're likely not to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Texas (18-14)

• NET: 42
• KenPom: 37
• BPI: 39
• Torvik: 45
• KPI: 66
• SOR: 44
• WAB: 47

The Longhorns — stop me if you've heard this before — faltered in the final weeks of the regular season, losing five of their final six games, all but one of which was decided by at least 10 points. That included a 10-point loss in the first round of the SEC tournament to a Mississippi team that was 12-19 entering the matchup.

The predictive metrics still like Sean Miller's team, but they're still widely viewed as one of the first four teams to miss the tournament cut.

South Florida (24-8)

• NET: 49
• KenPom: 50
• BPI: 52
• Torvik: 51
• KPI: 36
• SOR: 53
• WAB: 59

The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the country, with 10 consecutive wins after into their American Conference tournament semifinal victory against Charlotte. Given their statistical profile, they'll likely need to win the conference tournament to earn the American's automatic berth.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracketology 2026: March Madness metrics unsure of eight men's teams

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